India’s crude oil import bill could boost by $9-bn to $12-bn, if the country stops buying for Russian crude oil, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
The report mentioned that if India halted oil imports from Russia for the rest of FY26, the fuel invoice would possibly grow through $9-bn in FY26 and $11.7-bn in FY27 because of growth in costs.
Russia recently accounts for 10% of the worldwide crude supply. If all nations stopped purchasing from Russia, crude oil costs could increase around 10%, provided no other nations grow their manufacturing.
India considerably elevated purchasing of Russian oil given that 2022, which was sold at a discount, capped at $60 per with barrel, to make sure energy safety after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow and averted its supplies following the invasion of Ukraine.
As a result, Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports surged from simply 1.7% in FY20 to 35.1% in FY25, making Russia India’s biggest oil dealer. In quantity terms, India imported 88-million metric tonnes (mmt) of crude from Russia in FY25, out of its total oil imports of 245-mmt.
Before the Ukraine war, Iraq was India’s pinnacle crude supplier, observed by way of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Indian refiners commonly supply oil from Middle Eastern manufacturers by year contracts, which permit flexibility to request additional supplies every month.
India has similarly diversified its oil sources to approximately 40 nations. New supply alternatives have emerged from Guyana, Brazil, and Canada, including to the nation’s energy protection. If Russian supplies had been cut off , India should shift lower back to its traditional Middle Eastern providers underneath present annual offers, ensuring flexibility in meeting its import needs, the SBI report stated.
The report emphasized that even as the ability increase in the import invoice is large, India’s diverse supply network and mounted contracts with different oil-producing countries may additionally help cushion the effect. However, a rise in international crude prices because of reduced Russian exports might nevertheless put upward pressure on costs.
