ExxonMobil projects a considerable boom driven by extensive inventory and technological advancements.
As they reported their year-end 2025 results, Permian Basin exploration and manufacturing corporations detailed expectations for modest growth in 2026.
East Daley Analytics’ survey of guidance from 14 public operators pointed to growth of 183,000 barrels per day, or 2.7%, in oil production in 2026.
The clean outlier is ExxonMobil, which projected boom of 113,000 barrels per day this year.
“It boils right down to the depth of our inventory, high return inventory,” stated Rich Dealy, ExxonMobil’s vice president for the Permian Basin.
With 1.5 million acres, he advised the Reporter-Telegram, the corporation has room for longer laterals, cube development to limit parent-child well interference and testing of latest technologies.
The corporation has not modified its Permian Basin growth plans since last year’s finishing of its merger with Pioneer Natural Resources, he stated. The corporation’s target stays to reach 2 million barrels a day from the Permian by the end of 2030.
“We couldn’t do this without our people. They are the main metrics that let us to deliver that growth goal,” he stated.
Dealy called the Permian Basin “the present that continues on giving” as his corporation joined others in developing new benches beyond the core Wolfcamp and Spraberry. ExxonMobil persist to add drilling opportunities through trades and bolt-on acquisitions, he added.
He sees public corporations remaining cautious about surging activity levels in the short term amid the recent spike in oil prices due to capital discipline and price volatility. He stated drilling corporations report a few inquiries but the rig count has not but modified appreciably. He added that it could take 9 to 12 months before new manufacturing from additional drilling reaches pipelines and refiners.
“Look at what is happening in the world. We need U.S. Energy independence and safety of supply and affordability,” Dealy stated. “In spite of projections, there will always be demand for oil. Our portfolio permits us to develop and we hope we are able to reduce some of the supply pressure that’s building.”
Excluding Exxon, Permian guidance would fall to 1.2% rise this year, East Daley analysts stated. Beyond Exxon, most manufacturers forecast far more modest gains.
The only other manufacturer calling for noticeably strong growth in 2026 is Permian Resources at 6%. Occidental, the second-largest Permian oil producer after ExxonMobil, has guided to 3.6% growth.
Only Devon Energy is anticipating a 0.6% dip in its oil production in 2026.
